How Cardon Outperformed Default Replenishment Flows by 2.58x

How did we run our A/B test?

We used a methodology that moved past surface-level clicks to find the true revenue driver:

The Setup:

• Prioritize Revenue Multiple as the main KPI:

  We focused on the absolute revenue lift generated by our predictive triggers compared to the default setup.

  
  

• Define the scope:

  We tested two different philosophies: targeting people based on a generic calendar (Static Timers) vs. targeting people based on individual product usage (Predictive Replenishment).

Running the test:

• 90-day testing window:
  This allowed us to account for varying product shelf lives—from daily SPF to targeted hair treatments—and the natural restock behavior of Cardon’s customers.

  
  

• Monitor for accuracy:

  We ensured alerts landed exactly when a customer was likely to run out. We weren't looking for clicks; we were looking for high-intent reorders.

The 2 KPIs That Actually Predict Bottom-Line Revenue

KPI 1: Replenishment Revenue Multiple

Most default flows guess timing based on site-wide averages. This KPI compares the absolute revenue generated by individual consumption tracking versus those generic static setups.

• The Cardon Result: 2.58x Revenue Multiple:

  Retentics generated over 2.5x the revenue of the legacy replenishment setup during the testing period.

KPI 2: Average Order Value (AOV) Of Replenishment Flow Revenue

• Precise timing builds trust.

  When a reorder reminder hits exactly at the peak of necessity, customers are significantly more likely to add more to their cart.

  
  

• The Cardon Result:

  1.32x AOV Multiple (32% Lift). Optimizing timing and product recommendations significantly expanded average basket size compared to the baseline setup.

  
  

  

The Key Health Metrics That Support Performance
Setup & Implementation

• Speed to Value:

  Go-live took less than 48 hours. Cardon didn't need a technical overhaul or new creative assets; they simply connected their existing Klaviyo templates to our predictive backend.

  
  

• Resource Drag:

  Zero developer hours or ongoing management required. All product lifecycle mapping and tracking logic are automated.

The Takeaway

Success in retention isn't about how many emails you send; it’s about how many land at the peak of necessity. Relying on static timers leaves revenue on the table. When you switch to predictive replenishment, you stop chasing reorders and start facilitating them.